Koert Lindijer has been a correspondent in Africa for the Dutch newspaper NRC since 1983. He is the author of four books on African affairs.
The war in Sudan has been devastating. Not only have millions of people fled, hospitals, schools, museums, places of worship and apartment buildings have been targeted, but now the dams in the Nile are also at risk. Earlier this month, the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a fighting group that has been at war with the government army since 2023, attacked around the Merow dam, north of the capital Khartoum. The condition of the Jebel Aulia dam, located in the White Nile, about forty kilometers south of Khartoum, also caused concern among scientists at the end of December. Yasir Abbas Mohamed was Sudan’s Minister of Water Affairs until 2021. He is the co-author of a report* by the Institute for Water Education in Delft on the functioning of dams in times of war. According to the report, the country is “on the brink of disaster”.
The Africanists talked to him.
Has the immediate risk of the Jabal Awliya Dam now been averted?
The risk has been averted because the gates of the dam have been opened. So that more water can flow. Then the water level went down so that at least the flooding upstream is no longer there. There has been flooding. A number of villages has been drowned by water.
What happened end of December -high water level, drowning a number of villages- it can happen again in the future. Because there is no proper opening and closing of the gates. It’s a bit random now. So the key conclusion of our report is that there is a risk Jabel Awliya dam because the opening and closing of the gates is not, is not the right way. It’s not professional. It’s random. Maybe if I can put it in this simple way.
What are the risks of the dam?
Our report focused only on the technical aspects of operating and maintaining the system. We highlighted that without proper operation, there is a risk of flooding. Flooding can occur along riverbanks, potentially drowning villages, and there is also the danger of the dam overflowing. We cannot ignore the possibility of inadequate operation and maintenance on-site.
For instance, last April, the RSF managed to lower the water level and refill the dam by July. However, in late September and October, when water levels rose significantly, they opened the gates but closed them again a few weeks later, leading to flooding in December. Later, some individuals reopened the gates, which further complicated the situation. Dams are delicate hydraulic structures that require careful operation and maintenance; without these, the risk of flooding increases. It is not like you or me just opening a valve and the water goes and I close it again the way you close and open electricity. You need to be an expert.
Why?
The Jabal Awliya dam is special because it’s very old dam and very big. Because it is very big it is very much affected by the winds. So there is what they call apparent depths and actual depths of the water. It would be very challenging to operate it in the proper way. That is number one. Number two: The last two years there will have been no maintenance in the dam, for example maintaining the gates, cleaning them and painting them. Number three is the downstream water level itself, the water in Khartoum, which is very much defined by the flow of the Blue Nile not the White Nile. The water coming from the Blue Nile has a backwater curve just close to Jabal Awliya Dam, which makes again the operation a bit challenging.
What you mean is that the water from the Blue Nile can push the water from the White Nile back?
It is correct. And when it is pushed back it increases the water level downstream Jabal Awliya Dam. And if the water level is high, then the amount of water passing through will be less. So you have to consider these factors when you operate the dam.
How does it work in normal times? Is it the Ministry of Water Affairs where all these experts are and which regulate these dams?
During our time they would consider how much water is coming from Sennar on the Blue Nile. So that they can also measure how much is the downstream water level now and in the coming days.As far as I know, I suspect there are some experts there. Maybe there is some retired staff, maybe technicians or workers. They know how to open the gates, they know how to close the gates. But I’m not sure. I suspect if there is a professional team there the information from the Jabel Awliya dam should be combined with information from the Sennar dam. But both dams are in different territories. There is no communication between the two.
Is there any an international organization which monitors this kind of thing?
There is some monitoring by satellites. But the problem of satellites is that it is from a few days earlier, if not a few weeks earlier. If the satellites did monitor in real time, for example, every day or at least the data of yesterday, that could have been very helpful. But usually they are two weeks, one week, three weeks behind.
Maybe the worst scenario is that if the Jabel Awliya fails, then what will happen is that downstream, I mean like north of Khartoum, along the main Nile, these areas will be really affected.
So what would you suggestion be? That a dam like this is under non-partisan control?
You see, it’s becoming very political now. And it’s part of the military battle now in Sudan. Because for RSF this is crucial because they use it as a bridge to take their supply from west of Sudan and then to inside of Khartoum. And the army see it as a source of the supply so the Sudan army is trying to attack the bridge. There is a small bridge across the river there. So the Sudan army attacked this bridge few times but immediately it was repaired because it’s a key for RSF. So any discussion how this dam will be operated in the future is part of the core of the politics of the war itself. But my approach is very technical.
What is the importance of dams for Sudan?
This dam was first built for Egypt, not for Sudan. It was built to supply Egypt with more water in the high Aswan dam. The old Aswan capacity was limited. Then they were looking for another dams to build. And then they came upstream. When the Egyptians and British engineers came, beginning of last century, they found at this place that the Blue Nile pushed the White Nile. Then they said, this is a natural reservoir. So this is the right side for a dam to build. So they started in 1933 and they completed 1937. From 1977 the dam has been operated by Sudan.
Climate change, how important is this? Has the flow of the Nile become more irregular? Is it more difficult to predict what the two Niles are doing?
Climate change is there, it is real now. Because we are seeing huge flooding, huge rainfall over the equatorial lakes, over Lake Victoria, for a number of years. Since 2019 we are seeing high flow causing devastating damages in South Sudan already. Like the last flood season in Sudan, we had a dam collapsed near Port Sudan. It has been washed out. Also in other dams in the northern part of Nigeria also washed out. So, excessive rainfall because of climate change is real.
There are six dams a long the River Nile in Sudan.
1. The Sennar Dam is on the Blue Nile and was built in 1925, with a capacity of 0.07 billion cubic meters.
2. The Jebel Awlia Dam is on the White Nile, constructed in 1937, and has a capacity of 3.0 billion cubic meters.
3. Khashm Al-Girba Dam is on the Atbara River, built in 1964, with a capacity of 0.8 billion cubic meters.
4. Roseires Dam, also on the Blue Nile, was built in 1966 and maintained in 2014, now holding 7.0 billion cubic meters.
5. The Merowe Dam, built in 2009, has a capacity of 12.0 billion cubic meters.
6. Lastly, the Upper Atbara and Setit Dam Complex is currently under construction.
*You can also find an article about the dams in Sudan published at the Institute for Water Education:
https://www.un-ihe.org/news/dams-times-war-looming-collapse-jebel-aulia-dam-sudan
