23 September 2026
Authors: Jalale Gatachew Birru Regional Expert, East Africa and Clionadh President & CEO
On 23 September, the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF), led by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), seized control of airports in Mekelle, Aksum, and Shire in Tigray (see map). Armed clashes have begun along the Kobo-Tumuga direction between the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) troops and joint forces of TDF and the Amhara Fano National Movement (AFNM), according to ACLED local sources.
Similar clashes are reported along the Zata, Dinqa, and Sekota lines of the Tigray-Amhara border, and along the Tonsa line of the Tigray-Afar border. These actions follow a low-scale conflict between the TPLF and the government that began on 1 August in Shererina at the border of Ethiopia and Sudan.
During this phase and until 22 September, the violence was low intensity, with ENDF conducting defensive drone strikes targeting TDF and TPLF officials and multiple drone strikes concentrated in Mekelle and Southern Tigray zone. Since the beginning of September, a new round of TDF deployments with heavy weapons (tanks and artillery, etc.) has been observed in Southern Tigray zone. The TPLF has been on a forced recruitment drive and general saber-rattling for several months.
These developments today followed the formal announcement of the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival on Sunday, whose main purpose is to remove the current government. The alliance brings together seven armed and political factions:
• AFNM,
• Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) — also known as the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF)-Shane,
• TPLF,
• Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF),
• Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front (Ugugumo),
• Benishangul Peoples’ Liberation Front (BPLF), and
• Gumuz Peoples’ Democratic Movement (GPDM).
These first post-alliance actions by the TPLF suggest that they are leading the charge to destabilize the government on multiple fronts. Seizing airports and clashes in and around Tigray is not — in and of itself — an important military development as the TPLF already controls the Tigray state as the regional government since 5 May.
What is important is that on two other occasions in recent Ethiopian history (the attempted coup in Amhara on 22 June 2019 and the start of the Tigray War in 2020), actions by one group prompted others across the country to act. The groups involved in those previous events are involved in the announced alliance. In the Amhara example, joint actions (in Bahir Dar, Amhara; in Addis Ababa; and in Benishangul-Gumuz) were defeated quickly. The Tigray War on 3 November 2020 began when TPLF troops and allied local militia launched a coordinated assault on the ENDF Northern Command headquarters in Mekelle, and other critical federal military facilities across the region. On 4 November, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared a state of emergency in the region.
Today’s episode will cause worry that the other agents in the alliance are about to act in their areas across the Ethiopian state. It will also worry the government if the TPLF and the AFNM can continue to work together in coordinated attacks like that in Kobo-Tumuga today.
The ENDF is already stretched, and is preparing for likely international actions stemming from contests with Eritrea, developments in Somaliland, and alliances with the United Arab Emirates and Israel. A series of active insurgencies across the state could debilitate the military and prevent any participation in the growing security situation in the Red Sea.
However, it is unlikely that several of the groups in this alliance have the ability, organization, recruits, or agenda to ‘rise up’: many have been beaten back by federal and state forces in the recent past, and others remain highly localized threats, if active at all. The TPLF does, however, remain a thorn in the side of the Ethiopian government, as do the Amhara factions. Declaring a state of emergency is unlikely to be the next step, although it may be soon approaching.
From the TPLF came this statement:
Statement from the National Regional Government of Tigray
It is known that the despotic and genocidal Prosperity regime, by intensifying the genocidal acts it had been perpetrating to exterminate the people of Tigray using various methods, had inflicted a lot of damage by carrying out bombings using aircraft and drones and, in some areas, waging overt [infantry] attacks.
However, the Tigray government, on its part, refrained from responding to the repeated hostility and provocations of the enemy, rather preferring to observe the developments in depth and undertake de-escalatory activities.
The genocidal regime, which does not want to rest until it completely exterminates and subdues the people of Tigray, has, as a continuation of the intense bombardment it had been carrying out using aircraft, drones and cannons [guns] yesterday, 22 September 2026, today launched an open invasion and attack on us, accompanied by infantry.
Consequently, our army, which is the pillar of the existence and security of its people, has been instructed to defend against the attack and genocidal invasion waged on us and has entered into a defensive battle.
There is no doubt that we will repulse, with great perseverance and motivation, the second round of genocidal invasion that Abiy Ahmed – who has been continually committing genocide for the past six years with the aim of exterminating us as a people – has now waged against us.
Therefore, we call on our army, the entire people and our allies in the struggle to solidify their unity and intensify their struggle. We are confident that you, our people at home and abroad, will stand by your heroic army now, as you did in the past, and do everything required of you.
While timely explanations will be given by the relevant authorities regarding the invasion that has begun and the ongoing resistance, we notify you that presenting information regarding military movements, campaigns and operations, apart from the relevant body, will entail legal accountability.
The dictatorial and genocidal Prosperity regime, by intensifying the crimes it had been committing in violation of international humanitarian and human rights laws, has now cut off public services and infrastructure.
Moreover, we urge our entire people to take necessary precautions, as the enemy, known for its “drying the sea to catch fish” mentality, will not restrain itself from committing further crimes against civilians.
Honor and glory to our heroic martyrs!
National Regional Government of Tigray
September 23, 2026
Mekelle