The rains are coming in Sudan. In the past that meant that the rhythm of wars in Sudan would change, there would be a lull. Probably not this time though. Because the nature of warfare has dramatically changed: these days drones are flying around and hitting military as well as civilian targets. Since they go through the air and are not hampered by mud on impassible roads, they will keep on flying. So, there will be no respite in suffering during the rainy season.
As far as winning and losing is concerned, the war has not dramatically changed over the last few months. The analysis of this conflict has remained the same: neither sides is able to give the enemy a knock-out.
With Ethiopia giving increased support to the RSF, the militia went on the offensive in Eastern Sudan and captured the town of Kurmuk(a historic town in the war in the south, when it changed hands many times). But that RSF offensive has been rolled back, and it seems that in the east the RSF and allies did not make the breakthrough.
In Kordofan in the middle of the country the RSF did perform better but has not managed to capture El Obeid yet, and in the last few days it lost Bara and Umm Sayalla in North Kordofan State as part of an offensive aimed at securing the Al-Sadarat highway between Khartoum and El Obeid.
It has surprised me how the UN and other organizations (which could claim to talk for that vague concept called “the international community”) has been warning of massacres in El Obeid on the level seen last year in El Fashar. But that seems to be a misreading of the situation to me. In El Fashar, like in el Geneina at the start of the war, the RSF applied genocidal military tactics against African population groups, like the Zaghawa and the Massalit. These black African people form part of the power structure in Darfur, but not so much in Kordofan and El Obeid. Population groups in the town are very different from the ones in Darfur. Ethnic cleansing like in El Fashar is therefore unlikely. But of course, terrorism and lack of respect for civilians is a hallmark of the RSF, so peaceful it will not be if the takeover happens.
Three and a half year the war now rages. Who could have predicted that? I see in the media that more and more the focus is being put on outside forces as the culprits, of their influence on the war. I am sure that the evil and illegal gold trade which is taking place is an important factor in the war. These bloody drones are bloody expensive! And I wonder: Where did all the gold in government coffers go when the conflict broke out? Did the RSF steal it? And how is gold being smuggled right now? How does it end up in Dubai and where does it go from there?
These are relevant questions which have to be answered. But in essence, the war is being fed by Sudanese issues. After all the years of discrimination against non-Arab or non-muslim population groups since 1956, after having let auxiliary forces fight in the periphery of the country for the state, after all these misrule and divide and rule tactics, the chickens have come home to roost. It is the price South Sudan paid first, then Darfur and now the country in its entirety. Sudan has to reinvent itself.
